INTERNATIONAL ENERGY JOURNAL

Volume 21, No. 01, Month MARCH, Year 2021, Pages 147 - 158

Halving global co2 emissions by 2050: technologies and costs

Lola Vallejo, Christoph Mazur, Alexandre Strapasson, Tim Cockerill, Ajay Gambhir, Tom Hills, Mark Jennings, Owain Jones, Nicole Kalas, James Keirstead, Cheng Khor, Tamaryn Napp, Danlu Tong, Jeremy Woods, Nilay Shah

Abstract Download PDF

This study provides a whole-systems simulation on how to halve global CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to 2010, with an emphasis on technologies and costs, in order to avoid a dangerous increase in the global mean surface temperature by end the of this century. There still remains uncertainty as to how much a low-carbon energy system costs compared to a high-carbon system. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) show a large range of costs of mitigation towards the 2°C target, with up to an order of magnitude difference between the highest and lowest cost, depending on a number of factors including model structure, technology availability and costs, and the degree of feedback with the wider macro-economy. A simpler analysis potentially serves to highlight where costs fall and to what degree. Here we show that the additional cost of a lowcarbon energy system is less than 1% of global GDP more than a system resulting from low mitigation effort. The proposed approach aligns with some previous IAMs and other projections discussed in the paper, whilst also providing a clearer and more detailed view of the world. etc...

Keywords

Carbon emissions, Climate change mitigation, Energy economics, Energy systems, Environmental policy

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